World: Morocco imports influenced world barley trade forecast

Due to the robust malting demand from China and Russia and increased feed requirements in North Africa, world barley trade in 2005/06 is expected to grow modestly, according to IGC. The forecast of IGC is of 16.1 million tonnes, up slightly from last month due to a revision to Morocco’s imports. The estimate for 2004/05 has also been lifted, from 15.5 million tonnes, to 15.8 million tonnes, mainly reflecting larger than anticipated recent shipments by Australia.

Due to continuing drought in Morocco and its decision in early May to suspend customs duty and value added tax (VAT) on barley imports, the import forecast has been lifted by a further 0.1 million tonnes, to 0.5 million tonnes. Previously, the customs duty averaged around 35%, or 280 dirhams ($32.6) per ton, while VAT on barley imports was 7% for livestock feed, zero for human consumption, and 20% for other uses. Elsewhere in North Africa, the barley crop in Algeria has also been affected by dry conditions, but imports in 2005/06 are forecast to be the same as the year before, at 0.2 million tonnes Imports of malting barley by China, where beer demand is increasing amid a robust economy, are expected to be particularly strong; purchases are forecast at 2.1 million tonnes, an 11% increase over 2004/05.

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